Numbers show increase in foreclosure activity

In August 2008, there were a total of 7,505 recorded resale home transactions. Foreclosure activity represented 44 percent (3,295 transactions), while there were 4,210 traditional market transactions. Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record. In July 2008, the spilt was 3,470 foreclosed homes and 4,695 traditional transactions, while August 2007 was 915 and 3,660 recorded sales, respectively.

July typically represents the end of the resale home season, so it is not unusual to find a lower level of sales activity in August. Historically, the remaining months of the year tend to post slowing recorded activity. The 2008 year-to-date total is 29,965 traditional sales and 21,355 foreclosures.

“Foreclosure activity differs throughout the Valley,” said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University Polytechnic campus. “For example, it was 56 percent in Avondale, 23 percent in Tempe and 41 percent in Mesa. The declining prices have fueled renewed investor interest and potential owner-occupants, especially in the lower-income ranges.”

For the traditional market, the median price was $193,550, while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $161,875. For a year ago, the median prices were $258,000 and $220,010, respectively. Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years. The lower median price is being impacted by several forces including the large number of vacant homes, especially in certain neighborhoods. Further, capital is available for lower-priced housing, but lacking in the higher priced housing market.

Since the greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. In North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $545,000, while the traditional market was $525,000. In South Scottsdale the splits were $219,855 and $242,000, respectively. In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $98,000 and foreclosures were $123,580, while in Union Hills it was $250,000 and $186,790.

While lower prices can greatly improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers whom are watching their limited equity erode, as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Thus, lower prices affect the ability and desire to continue owning the home and even overall confidence in the economy, which puts additional strain on the local housing market.

“There is heightening expectation that the recent takeover of the Federal National Mortgage Assoc. and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corp. by the federal government will bring much needed confidence and stability to the housing and financial markets,” said Butler. “One expected result of the takeover is that mortgage interest rates will move lower providing some incentive for potential buyers. However, most potential buyers still confront a weak economy, slumping levels of confidence and tighter underwriting guidelines. Thus, the local housing market still contains considerable uncertainty over when any potential strengthening can be expected,” he said.

Within the 815 total recorded sales, the townhouse/condominium market had 265 foreclosed properties. A year ago the split was 945 for traditional sales and 75 for foreclosed sales. In August 2008, the median price for foreclosed properties was $125,330 while the traditional market stood at $157,000. For July 2008, the respective splits were $125,800 and $160,000.

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed was 1,640 and 1,825 square feet for a market transaction home. In Paradise Valley, the median square footage was 3,420 square feet at a median price of $1,225,000. For a year ago, the foreclosed market was at 1,725 square feet and the traditional market stood at 1,735 square feet. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,090 square feet (1,130 square feet for a year ago), while the traditional market unit was 1,155 square feet (1,065 square feet for a year ago).

Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies. Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300

Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus