Greater Phoenix resale numbers show foreclosures not slowing

The year began with 6,960 recorded home resales, while December 2008 had 7,425 recorded home resales. Foreclosure activity in January 2009 represented 48 percent (3,370) of the transactions, while there were 3,590 traditional market transactions. Foreclosure transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record. For January 2008, there were 4,205 recorded sales, with 1,800 sales in foreclosure or 43 percent on the month’s recordings.

For January 2009, foreclosure activity differed throughout the Valley such as 51 percent in Surprise, 38 percent in Tempe and 35 percent in Scottsdale. Even in response to hiatus and mortgage modification programs, foreclosure activity did not slow.

Due to the time it takes to record transactions, some slowing might still be evident in the next few months. However, with the extremely weak economy the ability to maintain ownership or to purchase a home will continue to be severely tested, which will further delay any potential recovery, according to Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus.

“The local housing market will continue to be vexed well into the next year by eroding consumer confidence, brought on by a weak economy, possible job losses and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines,” said Butler.

The declining prices have piqued interest for potential investors and owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges. For the traditional market, the median price in January was $136,000 ($243,000 for January 2008), while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $135,000 ($208,250 for January 2008).

“Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years,” said Butler. “Slightly over 30 percent of the foreclosed homes were sold again with a median price markdown of 13 percent. The markdown varied throughout the Valley, ranging from 40 percent in Maryvale to 28 percent in Gilbert to 7 percent in Tempe.”

While lower prices can greatly improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers whom are watching their limited equity erode, as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Rapidly declining value can be another issue in some of the mortgage modification programs which require a limited decline in value from the purchase and financing of the home.

Since the greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. For January 2009 in North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $443,470 ($429,750 in December), while the traditional market was $489,000 ($518,850 in December). In South Scottsdale the splits were respectively $195,350 ($175,950 in December) and $221,450 ($215,000 in December).

In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $41,000 ($50,000 in December) and foreclosures were $81,730 ($108,180 in December), while in Union Hills it was $220,000 ($227,000 in December) and $186,780 ($218,300 in December), respectively. For January 2009, Paradise Valley had a median square footage of 4,600 and a median price of $1,587,500.

Within the 615 total recorded sales for January 2009, the townhouse/condominium market had 285 foreclosed properties. For a year ago, there were 700 total transactions, with 140 foreclosing. In January 2009, the median price for foreclosed properties was $104,745, while the traditional market stood at $125,000. Last year, the respective splits were $156,200 and $176,000

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed in January was 1,605 and 1,700 square feet for a market transaction home. For a year ago, the foreclosed market was at 1,815 square feet and the traditional market stood at 1,800 square feet. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,090 (1,090 square feet for year ago), while the traditional market units was 1,205 square feet (1,115 square feet for a year ago).

Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies. Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300

Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus