Greater Phoenix resale market numbers pique investor, owner interest
In November 2008, there were a total of 6,465 home resales recorded. Foreclosure activity represented 48 percent (3,095 transactions), while 3,370 homes sold were traditional market transactions. Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record.
In October 2008, the spilt was 3,745 foreclosed homes and 4,465 traditional transactions, while November 2007 was 1,115 and 2,580 recorded sales, respectively. Historically, the remaining months of the year tend to post slowing recorded activity. The 2008 year-to-date total is 42,425 traditional sales and 31,850 foreclosures. With an estimated 1,061,175 single-family homes in Maricopa County, annual foreclosure activity represents 3 percent of the inventory, while it was 0.7 percent for the 2007 year to date.
Monthly foreclosure activity differs throughout the Valley such as 49 percent in Surprise, 24 percent in Tempe and 41 percent in Chandler. In the much hoped for response to various mortgage modification programs offered by lenders and government agencies to assist troubled homeowners, recorded foreclosure activity could slow over the next few months, according to Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies in the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University Polytechnic.
“The fundamental issue is that most of the programs are based on the homeowners having the required income to support the modified mortgage,” said Butler. “However, the extremely weak economy is leading to mounting job losses that could severely impact the ability of a troubled household to have the needed income to qualify for one of the possible programs.”
While many will be helped, other households will confront not only job loss but the loss of their home. Thus, the desire and ability to maintain ownership or to purchase a home is being severely tested, further delaying any potential recovery.
“The local housing market will continue to be vexed well into the next year by eroding consumer confidence, brought on by a weak economy, possible job losses and tighter mortgage underwriting guidelines,” Butler said. “The declining prices have piqued interest for potential investors and owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges.”
For the traditional market, the median price was $162,000, while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $155,100. For a year ago, the median prices were $249,000 and $212,000, respectively. Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years. The lower median price is being driven by several forces including the large number of vacant homes, especially in certain neighborhoods.
Since the Greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. In North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was $371,300 ($495,000 in October), while the traditional market was $500,000 ($525,000 in October). In South Scottsdale the splits were respectively $240,910 ($209,550 in October) and $229,000 ($240,000 in October).
In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $57,000 ($71,500 in October) and foreclosures were $112,020 ($117,145 in October), while in Union Hills it was $242,000 ($249,950 in October) and $204,090 ($194,340 in October).
For November 2008, Paradise Valley had a median square footage of 4,580 square feet and a median price of $1,705,000.
Lower prices can greatly improve affordability, but also adversely impact many owners and potential sellers who are watching their limited equity erode as prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Rapidly declining value can be another issue in some of the mortgage modification programs, which require a limited decline in value from the purchase and financing of the home.
Within the 570 total recorded sales, the townhouse/condominium market had 265 foreclosed properties. A year ago the split was 660 for traditional sales and 75 for foreclosed sales. In November 2008, the median price for foreclosed properties was $115,835, while the traditional market stood at $136,900. Last year, the splits were $147,900 and $181,500, respectively.
| November 2007 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Cities | Total | Median Price | Traditional Sales | Median Price | Foreclosed Sales | Median Price |
| Phoenix | 985 | $204,675 | 660 | $218,000 | 325 | $185,000 |
| Scottsdale | 250 | 541,500 | 205 | 565,000 | 45 | 463,050 |
| Chandler | 270 | 266,450 | 220 | 280,000 | 50 | 247,900 |
| Gilbert | 265 | 275,000 | 195 | 275,000 | 70 | 273,235 |
| Mesa | 395 | 222,900 | 295 | 230,000 | 100 | 190,185 |
| Tempe | 65 | 257,500 | 55 | 266,500 | 10 | 225,495 |
| Avondale | 75 | 216,000 | 45 | 212,470 | 30 | 219,215 |
| El Mirage | 60 | 170,000 | 30 | 169,500 | 30 | 177,715 |
| Glendale | 265 | 214,000 | 170 | 218,500 | 95 | 209,250 |
| Goodyear | 75 | 221,660 | 40 | 250,000 | 35 | 197,710 |
| Peoria | 180 | 235,445 | 120 | 245,000 | 60 | 222,975 |
| Sun City | 80 | 169,950 | 75 | 165,000 | 5 | 189,490 |
| Sun City West | 50 | 227,250 | 50 | 227,250 | ||
| Surprise | 175 | 228,025 | 100 | 236,000 | 75 | 218,450 |
| County | 3,695 | $236,000 | 2,580 | $249,000 | 1,115 | $212,000 |
| October 2008 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Cities | Total | Median Price | Traditional Sales | Median Price | Foreclosed Sales | Median Price |
| Phoenix | 2,605 | $127,135 | 1,270 | $121,950 | 1,335 | $130,500 |
| Scottsdale | 375 | 426,785 | 265 | 441,500 | 110 | 413,520 |
| Chandler | 405 | 225,000 | 250 | 241,200 | 155 | 199,885 |
| Gilbert | 455 | 225,125 | 290 | 227,000 | 165 | 219,345 |
| Mesa | 805 | 165,515 | 440 | 174,000 | 365 | 157,375 |
| Tempe | 110 | 219,000 | 75 | 240,000 | 35 | 175,555 |
| Avondale | 320 | 140,000 | 160 | 142,250 | 160 | 136,250 |
| El Mirage | 185 | 108,000 | 85 | 101,925 | 100 | 112,460 |
| Glendale | 590 | 154,950 | 315 | 154,650 | 275 | 158,450 |
| Goodyear | 235 | 164,000 | 125 | 158,000 | 110 | 175,270 |
| Peoria | 360 | 199,900 | 195 | 214,350 | 165 | 184,885 |
| Sun City | 70 | 140,815 | 55 | 140,000 | 15 | 144,615 |
| Sun City West | 45 | 190,000 | 40 | 190,000 | 5 | 236,235 |
| Surprise | 495 | 162,000 | 280 | 157,250 | 215 | 169,570 |
| County | 8,210 | $167,375 | 4,465 | $175,000 | 3,745 | $159,775 |
| November 2008 -- SINGLE-FAMILY RESALE HOMES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Cities | Total | Median Price | Traditional Sales | Median Price | Foreclosed Sales | Median Price |
Phoenix | 2,065 | $120,000 | 950 | $105,000 | 1,115 | $127,500 |
Scottsdale | 275 | 375,865 | 200 | 402,025 | 75 | 311,240 |
Chandler | 340 | 221,000 | 200 | 225,000 | 140 | 210,960 |
Gilbert | 335 | 215,000 | 195 | 215,000 | 140 | 213,850 |
Mesa | 640 | 151,000 | 350 | 149,000 | 290 | 154,720 |
Tempe | 85 | 208,780 | 65 | 220,000 | 20 | 192,925 |
Avondale | 255 | 136,325 | 125 | 132,000 | 130 | 143,950 |
El Mirage | 135 | 100,000 | 65 | 94,000 | 70 | 107,030 |
Glendale | 470 | 140,000 | 225 | 138,000 | 245 | 148,665 |
Goodyear | 185 | 165,000 | 85 | 156,000 | 100 | 171,950 |
Peoria | 300 | 194,000 | 160 | 197,500 | 140 | 184,620 |
Sun City | 50 | 149,750 | 40 | 149,500 | 10 | 170,000 |
Sun City West | 35 | 210,000 | 35 | 210,000 | ||
Surprise | 380 | 162,240 | 195 | 160,000 | 185 | 165,735 |
| County | 6,465 | $159,900 | 3,370 | $162,000 | 3,095 | $155,100 |
| November 2007 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Cities | Total | Median Price | Traditional Sales | Median Price | Foreclosed Sales | Median Price |
| Phoenix | 260 | $158,000 | 225 | $164,450 | 35 | $131,820 |
| Scottsdale | 200 | 250,000 | 185 | 255,000 | 15 | 190,800 |
| Chandler | 20 | 164,800 | 20 | 164,800 | ||
| Gilbert | 5 | 194,500 | 5 | 194,500 | ||
| Mesa | 60 | 141,750 | 50 | 147,250 | 10 | 112,950 |
| Tempe | 20 | 179,000 | 15 | 172,000 | 5 | 216,640 |
| Avondale | ||||||
| El Mirage | ||||||
| Glendale | 25 | 132,950 | 20 | 129,900 | 5 | 137,050 |
| Goodyear | ||||||
| Peoria | 25 | 170,000 | 20 | 155,000 | 5 | 231,865 |
| Sun City | 45 | 123,750 | 45 | 123,750 | ||
| Sun City West | 15 | 154,500 | 15 | 154,500 | ||
| Surprise | ||||||
| County | 735 | $178,830 | 660 | $181,500 | 75 | $147,900 |
| October 2008 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Cities | Total | Median Price | Traditional Sales | Median Price | Foreclosed Sales | Median Price |
| Phoenix | 325 | $115,000 | 155 | $120,450 | 170 | $106,250 |
| Scottsdale | 150 | 205,150 | 100 | 219,900 | 50 | 178,910 |
| Chandler | 40 | 126,925 | 20 | 134,900 | 20 | 125,815 |
| Gilbert | 15 | 130,920 | 10 | 136,000 | 5 | 126,650 |
| Mesa | 125 | 108,000 | 75 | 115,000 | 50 | 104,120 |
| Tempe | 50 | 146,750 | 35 | 143,500 | 15 | 147,950 |
| Avondale | ||||||
| El Mirage | ||||||
| Glendale | 35 | 93,100 | 15 | 83,000 | 20 | 101,120 |
| Goodyear | ||||||
| Peoria | 15 | 155,450 | 15 | 157,900 | ||
| Sun City | 30 | 119,000 | 25 | 121,000 | 5 | 100,335 |
| Sun City West | 10 | 141,000 | 10 | 141,000 | ||
| Surprise | ||||||
| County | 850 | $127,500 | 495 | $136,750 | 355 | $119,375 |
| November 2008 -- TOWNHOUSE-CONDOMINUM RESALES | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Cities | Total | Median Price | Traditional Sales | Median Price | Foreclosed Sales | Median Price |
Phoenix | 190 | $112,625 | 90 | $110,000 | 100 | $115,000 |
Scottsdale | 115 | 186,950 | 75 | 200,450 | 40 | 155,770 |
Chandler | 30 | 123,000 | 15 | 123,450 | 15 | 111,930 |
Gilbert | 10 | 137,075 | 5 | 144,750 | 5 | 137,075 |
Mesa | 75 | 108,345 | 35 | 117,500 | 40 | 106,250 |
Tempe | 20 | 164,805 | 10 | 170,000 | 10 | 161,040 |
Avondale | ||||||
El Mirage | ||||||
Glendale | 35 | 77,000 | 10 | 77,000 | 25 | 79,135 |
Goodyear | ||||||
Peoria | 20 | 138,000 | 15 | 145,175 | 5 | 112,600 |
Sun City | 25 | 107,000 | 25 | 107,000 | ||
Sun City West | 5 | 106,900 | 5 | 106,900 | ||
Surprise | ||||||
| County | 570 | $125,785 | 305 | $136,900 | 265 | $115,835 |
Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies. Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.
Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300
Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus