Foreclosures continue to rise in Greater Phoenix resale market

In July 2008, there were a total of 8,165 resale homes recorded sold. Foreclosure activity represented 42 percent (3,470 transactions), while there were 4,695 traditional market transactions. Foreclosed transactions represent home owners losing their property to successful individual bidders or the lender of record. In June 2008, the spilt was 3,275 foreclosed homes and 4,565 traditional transactions, while a year ago there were 660 and 4,080, respectively. Historically, July represents the end of the resale home season, with ensuing months posting slowing recorded activity. The 2008 year-to-date total is 25,755 traditional sales and 18,060 foreclosures.

Foreclosure activity differs throughout the Valley such as 41 percent in Surprise, 13 percent in Tempe and 22 percent in Scottsdale. The declining prices have fueled renewed investor interest and potential owner-occupants, especially in the lower income ranges.

For the traditional market, the median price was $200,750, while the foreclosed properties had a median price of $159,205. For a year ago, the median prices were $270,000 and $220,075, respectively.

“Investment interest is being driven by the anticipation that home prices will rise again in the next few years,” said Jay Butler, director of Realty Studies at Arizona State University’s Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at the Polytechnic campus. “The lower median price is being impacted by several forces including the large number of vacant homes, especially in certain neighborhoods. Further, capital is available for lower-priced housing, but lacking in the higher priced housing market.”

Since the Greater Phoenix area is so large, the median price can range significantly. In North Scottsdale, the median price for a foreclosed property was from $552,500, while the traditional market was $560,000. In South Scottsdale the splits were $205,375 and $247,000, respectively. In Maryvale, traditional transactions were $99,900 and foreclosures were $119,000, while in Union Hills it was $274,250 and $207,070, respectively.

While lower prices can greatly improve affordability, they can adversely impact many owners and potential sellers as their limited equity erodes, and prices decline to and even below existing debt level. Thus, lower prices affect the ability and desire to continue owning the home and even overall confidence in the economy, which puts additional strain on the local housing market.

For the last year, the housing market has been confronting issues derived from the hyper-market of previous years such as the subprime meltdown and overly ambitious investors. Unfortunately, the slowing economy, job losses and higher prices for food and fuel, will further stress households and the housing markets.

While there has been little attempt to help investors, there have been many programs started to help people save their homeownership. Most of the attempts have dealt with reset of higher interest rates, with the basic premise being that the home occupant has the income but not enough to satisfy the new mortgage payment. In a weak economy, many households now will not have the needed income to save their homes, even with a new mortgage payment plan. Thus, the impact of the economic downturn and inflationary pressures will define how much further the housing market will worsen and when will recovery begin.

Within the 870 total recorded sales, the townhouse/condominium market had 280 foreclosed properties. A year ago the split was 1,030 for traditional sales and 55 for foreclosed sales. In July 2008, the median price for foreclosed properties was $125,800 while the traditional market stood at $160,000. For June 2008, the respective splits were $133,215 and $164,950.

The median square footage for a single-family home recorded sold as foreclosed was 1,660, and 1,825 square feet for a market transaction home. In Paradise Valley, the median square footage was 3,360 square feet at a median price of $1,555,000. For a year ago, the foreclosed market was at 1,765 square feet and the traditional market stood at 1,755 square feet. In the townhouse/condominium sector, the median square footage for a foreclosed unit was 1,010 square feet (1,005 square feet for a year ago), while the traditional market unit was 1,160 square feet (1,060 square feet for a year ago).

Realty Studies is associated with the Morrison School of Management and Agribusiness at Arizona State University’s Polytechnic campus. Realty Studies collects and analyzes data concerning real estate in the greater Phoenix metropolitan area. Realty Studies is a comprehensive and objective source of real estate information for private, public and governmental agencies. Its director, Dr. Jay Q. Butler, may be reached at (480) 727-1300 or e-mail him at Jay.Butler@asu.edu. To subscribe to RSS feed for Realty Studies news, visit http://www.poly.asu.edu/realty/rss.html.

Jay Butler, Jay.Butler@asu.edu
(480) 727-1300

Chris Lambrakis, lambrakis@asu.edu
(480) 727-1173
Public Affairs at ASU Polytechnic campus